India Markets Weekahead: Outlook cautious, look overseas for cues

India Markets Weekahead: Outlook cautious, look overseas for cues

(The views expressed in this column are the author's own and do not represent those of Reuters)

The markets were in no man's land despite the high volatility in an important monetary policy announcement week. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) policy action was in line with market expectation of a 25 bps rate hike, though a section of market participants felt there could be pause. The RBI maintained that it will continue its anti-inflationary stance till the time there are signs of downward movement in the inflation trajectory. Going by the hawkish stance, we believe that we might see a rate hike in October before we come to a pause. Inflation should start heading southwards from Q3FY12 mainly due to base effect. Another key event during the week was the depreciation of the rupee which dipped to a two-year low close to 48 rupees against the dollar as India relaxed its overseas borrowings rules and allowed companies to refinance rupee debt through overseas borrowing. The rupee will continue to be weak, however further losses from current levels doesn't seem likely unless credit conditions deteriorate severely, which is not expected. The Indian government once again deferred the mega USD 2.5 billion FPO of ONGC, which was supposed to open on September 20. The government expectation on the issue price was not in sync with the market. The mention of an FPO is a value destruction proposition in the short-term for the issuer company unless SEBI overhauls the issue guidelines. With limited cues locally, the market participants are expected to look overseas for direction. The markets on Monday are initially expected to react to the outcome of the [...]

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